The new LOM plan indicates that Renison could produce more than 10,000 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate per year from the middle of 2025 onwards. This is a substantial increase from current production levels (~7,000 tonnes per year) due to additional output from the Area 5 section of the mine. The study also indicates that All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) will average around AU$ 17,750 – 18,750 over the 10 year mine life.
These findings rely somewhat on the ongoing Metallurgical Improvement Study. This work aims to increase recoveries in the Renison processing plant from around 74% to roughly 77%. The study aims to increase mill throughput rate as well as recoveries. Work to optimise the ore sorting circuit and processing plant began this year.
However, even without increased throughput and recovery, we expect increased production at Renison. Tin grades are forecast to pick up from 1.2% Sn currently to an average of 1.45% from 2024. This is primarily due to better grades in Area 5 – more than 0.5% higher than the rest of the mine.
Following the completion of the Area 5 Mining Optimisation Study, the new section of the mine has been incorporated into Renison’s overall Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE). The MRE also includes estimates for the Rentails project, but no longer includes Mt Bischoff. The former open pit mine was placed on care and maintenance in 2010, but a decision was made last year to rehabilitate the mine. As such, Metals X has removed the mineral estimate for Mt Bischoff.
Compared to the company’s last release, the grade at Renison has improved from 1.54% Sn to 1.57% Sn. As such, contained tin has risen by some 6,500 tonnes to 291,600 tonnes.
Our view: This year, Alphamin‘s new Bisie mine will challenge Renison’s position as the world’s sixth largest tin mine. The central African mine will produce some 9,000 – 10,000 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate this year, compared to Renison’s ~7,000 tonnes.
However, if Metals X can follow through on the LOM plan, then the two mines will be producing similar amounts of concentrate after 2025.
The LOM plan also indicates a slight improvement to costs (after initial ramp up), keeping Renison in the lower half of the global cost curve.