The investigation was launched following a petition from Malaysian tinplate producer Perusahaan Sadur Timah Malaysia (Perstima) Bhd, which alleged imports of electrolytic tinplate from the four countries were being sold in Malaysia at much lower than the domestic prices in those countries.

MITI will make a preliminary determination within 120 days. If the government decides  action is required, they may impose a provisional import duty for the duration of the investigation.

China, South Korea, Japan, and India are the top four exporters of tinplate to Malaysia, with shipment tonnages from those countries increasing 41% from 2022 to 2023.

Malaysia is a relatively small but a growing market for tin consumption, with an estimated 3,600 tonnes of refined tin used in 2023, mainly for tinplate and solder.

Our view: This development follows similar investigations in other countries, most notably in the United States which investigated allegations of tinplate dumping against eight countries including China and South Korea. This trend of increasing protectionism of domestic manufacturing appears to echo the trend of resource nationalisation on the supply side, and indicates a growing focus on greater domestic integration of the supply chain as seen in Indonesia.

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Japanese tinplate producer JFE Steel will close one of its tinplate lines by March 2020, according to parent company JFE Holdings. Production will consolidated into its operations in the Fukuyama district.

As part of plans to increase its competitiveness, JFE Steel will shut several plants in the Keihin and Chiba districts of Japan. This includes the tin mill at Chiba, where the company produces electrolytic tinplate. The tinplate line will close before March 2020. The rest of the tin mill lines will follow by the start of fiscal year 2022.

However, JFE plans to continue tinplate production. The Fukuyama plant already produces the majority of JFE’s tin mill products, and the company plans to merge the Chiba line into the same plant.

Our view: According to those familiar with JFE, the consolidation will have little impact on the company’s tin demand. April has been suggested as the target date for the completion of the project, although we would expect some delays.

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The Japanese market was considerably disrupted in 2011 by the earthquake and tsunami early in the year and restrictions on Indonesian supplies at the end of that year, so we believe that the small growth in imports in 2012 reflects stock movements rather than a real improvement in tin use.

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