This report is based on the twentieth annual survey of tin users carried out by the International Tin Association (ITA), which gathered data from tin consuming companies worldwide between June and September 2024.

80 companies took part in this year’s study, accounting for some 42% of estimated global refined tin use in 2023.

ITA’s latest estimate is that refined tin use in 2023 decreased -3.9% to 357,100 tonnes, based on data from the survey. This is more negative than the preliminary -1.6% estimate made by participants in last year’s Q2/Q3 survey as anticipated due to inflationary pressures.

The survey suggests a 3.0% increase in tin demand in 2024 to 367,900 tonnes, entering a moderate recovery cycle driven by China and underpinned by technology. Easing inflation will see a return to moderate global growth with tin-using green and digitalisation technologies accelerating, but geopolitical risks and supply chain shifts are prolonging uncertainty.

Refined tin stocks held by surveyed companies at the end of 2023 amounted to the equivalent of 3.8 weeks’ supply. Extrapolating to global consumption implies that world consumer stock holdings were around 28,200 tonnes. Consumer stocks remained steady through the year after dipping from 4.1 weeks in 2022. Forecasts for 2024 suggest recovering demand will decrease stocks to 3.4 weeks’ supply.

Provisional estimates of total global tin use, including refined and unrefined forms totalled 433,000 tonnes in 2023, down -4.9% from 2022. The Recycling Input Rate (RIR) was calculated to be 34.2% in 2023 and is forecast to increase to 35.4% in 2024.

Solder still accounts for the largest global share of tin use, stable at 51% in 2023.

Global average decline of refined tin use in this sector in 2023 was -1.0%, with growth in China insufficient to balance a significant RoW contraction. Forecasts for 2024 predict a strong recovery to a 2.5% global growth rate predominantly driven by China. Solar ribbon now represents around 20% of solder production, although growth has plateaued given China overcapacity and significant tin thrifting. Respondents are optimistic about longer-term prospects for increased use in solar, 5G, electric vehicles, and other new technologies.

The average proportion of lead-free solders in electronics was estimated at 92% globally in 2023, increasing from 86% in 2022. 76% of tin use globally in lead-free solders was specified at <100 ppm Pb, dipping slightly from 78% the previous year.

In chemicals, tin use by survey participants decreased by -3.1% in 2023 but with a strong recovery of 4.9% forecast in 2024. Although the sector saw a boost during the pandemic in 2020, it has faced significant macroeconomic challenges since 2018, with the recent downturn in residential construction in both the US and China further exacerbating its decline. A modest recovery in housing markets is forecast for 2024, with further medium-term boosts to tin chemical use possible from innovation, including new use in batteries in support of energy technologies.

Tin use in tinplate continued a sharp decline, decreasing overall to -7.6% in 2023. Turbulent trade data and anti-dumping headlines, especially in the US, came amid a 2.1% boost to China production. A strong rebound of 11.8% growth is forecast for RoW in 2024 as the market stabilises.

In the surveyed sample for tinplate, 31% had tin specifications under 50ppm, with 10% below 25ppm. Outside China, 50% of the tin used in this sample was classified as low lead, also under 50ppm.

Lead-acid battery tin use continued growth at 3.1% in 2023, slightly more than expected. China e-bike markets and an increase in high performance batteries for vehicles are forecast to accelerate growth to 10.2% in 2024.

The sector is especially strong in China, where e-bike markets are still expanding. Tin intensity in hybrid and other advanced vehicles also supports growth.

Tin use in tin-copper markets declined much faster than expected at -16.9% in 2023, especially outside China, with a further decline of -7.3% forecasted for 2024. The sector dynamics are complex with multiple product types. Strength from renewable energy sectors is strongly balanced against large volume commodity segments such as construction that have been especially impacted by macroeconomics.

Other traditional metal product markets were impacted by macroeconomic factors more severely than expected, contracting by -13.0% in 2023. They are projected to recover only partially, with a decline of -5.1% anticipated in 2024. Use segments are diverse, ranging from consumer-related pewter and wine capsule products to industrial bearings and powders.

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The top two producers remain unchanged, with Yunnan Tin maintaining its position as the world’s largest producer of refined tin, and Minsur kept second place. A challenging year at PT Timah resulted in a 23% decline in production, whilst growth at Malaysia Smelting Corporation saw the companies switch positions.

2023 saw moderate production growth from Chinese producers Yunnan Chengfeng and Guangxi China Tin, who held onto third and sixth positions respectively. This growth was offset by declines at similarly-sized producers Jiangxi New Nanshan and EM Vinto, which traded places. European secondary producer Aurubis Beerse saw growth, climbing one spot to ninth, while a decline at the Thailand Smelting & Refining Company (Thaisarco) pushed the company to tenth place, completing the Top 10.

Total production in mainland China declined 1.3% to 177,000 t in 2023. A partial resumption of mineral processing and sales of government stockpiles in the autonomous Wa State of Myanmar, which suspended mining operations from 1^st August 2023, maintained some level of shipments to China. Myanmar tin concentrate shipments to China decreased 15% year-on-year, while shipments from other countries increased by 5% over the same period.

Global secondary supply increased by 7.5% in 2023, recovering from a 6.6% decline the previous year. Growth in secondary refined tin production was split evenly between Europe and China.

Our view: Alongside a difficult macroeconomic climate impacting demand, a decline in global tin production yielded a market surplus of 9,700 t. An expected recovery in demand and ongoing supply disruptions especially in Wa State and Indonesia may bring supply tightness in 2024. We anticipate a reversal of the significant stocking seen in 2023.

Yunnan Tin, Minsur, Malaysia Smelting Corporation, PT Timah, Aurubis Beerse, and Thailand Smelting & Refining Company are members of the International Tin Association. Yunnan Chengfeng, Guangxi China Tin, and Jiangxi New Nanshan are Associate Companies reporting data to International Tin China.

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The eighth largest tin producer, EM Vinto has entered force majeure, as the Bolivan smelter struggles with sourcing coal from Peru and debt issues.

Trade across the two countries land border is severely restricted, as continued protests in Peru’s Puno region impact trade through various road blockages. The border town of Desaguadero, for example, has been brought to a standstill. Data from the Peruvian Foreign Trade Society show trade with Bolivia fell by two-thirds in January, compared with the same month the last year. Figures for February are expected to be even worse.

With trade restricted, the Bolivian state-owned smelter is struggling to source enough coal from Peru to power its smelter, triggering the force majeure. Production losses could reach up to 200 tonnes of tin per week. These protests have already had a material impact on tin supply; Minsur’s San Rafael mine is in the Puno region with suspended operations since mid-January.

This adds to mounting problems for Vinto, who are also facing financing issues in sourcing concentrate. It is reported that the country’s Huanuni and Calquiri mines have not supplied concentrate to the smelter for over two months as Vinto struggles to pay roughly US$ 90 million debt that has built up buying concentrates over the last few years. Huanani miners are reported to be protesting in La Paz demanding cancellation of the debt.

Our view: It’s been an unwelcome start to the year for Vinto, who would have hoped to rebound from their poor performance last year, alleviating some financing issues. Problems sourcing coal will persist as long as road blockages in Peru persist.  ITA continues to monitor the unrest in South America closely.

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Yunnan Tin Company maintained its position as the world’s largest producer of refined tin, while other Chinese companies shuffled up the rankings. After a turbulent year in Indonesia, production at PT Timah fell significantly compared with 2021. Overall, global refined tin production is estimated to have reached 380,400 tonnes, up 0.3% on last year’s total of 379,400 tonnes.

ITA surveys global tin smelters to compile the annual list of the world’s largest producers. In 2022, these top 10 companies produced 56% of the world’s tin, down from 59% in 2021. As previously mentioned, the part of the drop in the group’s output can be attributed to the difficult year had by PT Timah. However, a significant decline in output from YTC also contributed.

Chinese smelters maintained overall production during 2022, despite challenges. Around 90% of production was shuttered in Q3 as smelters brought forward maintenance on falling prices and low demand. Meanwhile a wide arbitrage led to surging refined tin imports. Concentrate imports were also up year-on-year. Producers in South America maintained production off a strong baseline in 2021. European secondary production dropped as a result of a challenging Q4.

Our view: Despite a poor macroeconomic environment impacting demand, world tin production has remained steady in 2022. We expect a marginal increase in production in 2023, as positivity from China reopening is weighed down with challenges in Indonesia and South America.

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Yunnan Tin Company maintained its position as the world’s largest producer of refined tin, while others, such as EM Vinto, re-entered to Top 10 list. As was well-publicised at the time, MSC were subject to strict COVID regulations from the Malaysian government which saw its production fall significantly compared to 2020. Overall, global refined tin production is estimated to have reached 378,400 tonnes, up 11% on last year’s total of 339,400 tonnes.

ITA surveys global tin smelters to compile the annual list of the world’s largest producers. In 2021, these top 10 companies produced 59% of the world’s tin, down from 67% in 2020. As previously mentioned, the part of the drop in the group’s output can be attributed to the difficult year had by MSC. However, another significant decline in output from PT Timah – the second consecutive fall – also contributed.

In China, most smelters recovered production during 2021, despite challenges. Although recent imports from Myanmar has been lowered, some smelters have pivoted to importing concentrate from other regions – including central Africa. Producers in South America recovered rapidly from COVID-related issues in 2020, with all the surveyed smelters reporting increased production.

Our view: As expected, world tin production recovered well from COVID restrictions, exceeding 2019 and 2020 levels. We do not expect further COVID-related issues and foresee production to continue rising in 2022, with some 4% growth forecast.

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In total, ITA estimates that 327,200 tonnes of refined tin were produced in 2020. This was a nearly 8% drop in production compared to 2019 levels, which had already fallen some 5% from 2018.

ITA also surveys global tin smelters to compile the annual list of the world’s largest producers. In 2020, these top 10 companies produced 69% of the world’s tin, down from 76% in 2019.

The drop in output from the group can be primarily attributed to the significant decline in production from PT Timah. The company more than doubled production in 2019 after export regulations forced many of the country’s private smelters to cease operations. According to PT Timah’s annual report, some of these smelters were rented to the company, increasing their capacity significantly. However, many private smelters have resumed production, likely ending this deal with PT Timah.

In China, production began the year slowly as the coronavirus impacted raw materials supply. However, the larger companies in the top 10 were able to ride out the disruptions. As a result of the changes in Indonesia, Yunnan Tin retook the top spot on the list.

South America was significantly impacted by the coronavirus, with smelters in Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia closed for an average of two months in the early part of the year. The lengthy closure of EM Vinto (Bolivia) saw it move out of the top 10 for the for the first time. A full year of production from the new B2 tailings reprocessing plant enabled Minsur to keep production steady year-on-year despite the disruptions.

Our view: It is unlikely that we will see another year quite like 2020. Enforced smelter closures are not common normally, but synchronous stoppages across the world are unheard of.

Most smelters now have extensive safety measures in place to prevent COVID entering the plants, and so we feel it is unlikely that further waves of the virus could prevent production for significant periods. With that in mind, we forecast a rebound in refined tin production in 2021 back to 2019 levels.

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Upstream

The second week of February usually sees smelters return to full production after the Chinese Spring Holiday Festival. Most Chinese smelters lower their output for the week-long holiday. In fact, typical Q1 refined tin production is around 2,300 tonnes lower than the average quarter. However, due to the virus outbreak, many delayed returning to work.

In an ITA survey of Chinese smelters, most private operations thought they would restart full production at the end of the month. Government-owned operations, including Yunnan Tin, returned as normal at the end of the extended holiday.

Around this, smelters are still attempting to navigate an unusually tight concentrate market. Whle we previously reported that the restart of mining at Baiyinchagan was being delayed, we also understand that imports from Myanmar are impacted by the virus. Miners are returning to work more slowly than normal as a precaution.

Logistics are the biggest bottleneck, with cross-provincial transportation at a standstill. Even if Myanmar mines were operating at full tilt, smelters in Gejiu – the main destination for the concentrates – would not benefit. According to our survey, the inflow of concentrates is completely blocked. Smelters without integrated mines are working through already low concentrate stocks.

Downstream

Our view: While the immediate impact to the supply and demand of refined tin appears to be relatively small, the continued logistical backlog and sluggish return to work further downstream could slow global consumption in 2020. However, in order to make their GDP growth target for this year, the Chinese government are more than likely to stimulate the economy, lessening the impact of the virus.

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The world’s largest refined tin producer, Yunnan Tin Co. (YTC), has announced that its Ausmelt smelter will enter scheduled maintenance starting from 21 October.

In 2018, YTC produced some 78,000 tonnes of refined tin, making it the world’s largest refined tin producer by nearly 45,000 tonnes. Although this year, Indonesian government-owned refined tin producer PT TIMAH has drastically increased production, YTC is still forecast to remain the world’s most significant supplier of refined tin.

In September, YTC announced that it would cut refined tin production this year by around 10% from its original production plan due to weak market demand and low prices. Now, YTC is planning to suspend refined tin production in order to complete scheduled maintenance on its smelter. Scheduled to begin on 21 October, the maintenance period will last for “no more than 50 days”, according to the company’s announcement.

Our view: Although maintenance to the smelter will lower production, it is unclear if this was already factored in to YTC’s production plans as maintenance last year was scheduled for the same period. While the announcement does refer to a 10% reduction in refined tin production compared to the original 2019 forecast, this was also quoted in the plan for production cuts.

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The Chinese concentrate market has been increasingly tight throughout 2019, caused in part by lower domestic output after the closure of the Baiyinchagan mine and by the reduced inflow of raw materials from Myanmar. Imports of concentrate from the neighbouring country have fallen by almost 30% during the first half of 2019 compared to the same period last year.

As a result of the market conditions, Chinese smelters have already reduced their treatment charges by 20% in order to encourage deliveries of raw materials. Combined with the recent low prices on the LME and SHFE, which fell by 28% between their peak in late February and a six-year low on 27 August, profits at these smelters are reportedly pressured in the current market environment. As a result, 14 Chinese smelters (including Yunnan Tin) agreed to reduce production by 20,000 tonnes, compared to 2018.

Our view: Chinese refined tin production in the first half of the year fell by 8% YoY. While the maximum change in annual production could be 20,000 tonnes, higher tin prices might prompt some recovery in the tin concentrate market and increase the availability of raw materials to smelters once again. It remains to be seen, therefore, whether the full extent of these cuts will be realised in practice.

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The tin price, having risen to highs of around US$ 21,500/tonne in March this year, has continually fallen since then, reaching US$ 16,425/tonne on 20 August. Similarly, prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also declined, reaching the 130,000 yuan/tonne level. In China, these low prices have challenged the profitability of tin mining, reducing production and shipments of tin concentrate. As such, smelters in the country are struggling to operate. To entice miners to sell their raw materials, smelters are being forced to reduce their processing charges, which combined with sluggish sales of refined tin, is eroding profit margins.

To combat this, some smelters are planning to reduce production. After August, some smelters will continue to produce tin metal at a lower production rate than before, while several smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui are planning to stop production; these smelters plan to pause production for about ten days, although when they will restart depends on the market and the availability of raw materials.

Our view: From January to July, the output of refined tin in China decreased by about 8% year-on-year. However, in the first half of the year, China’s tin imports decreased by 20%, of which the amount of tin imports from Myanmar decreased by 28%. The output of domestic mines has also decreased by about 2,000 tonnes so far this year due to the closure of Yinman Mining’s Baiyinchagan mine in Inner Mongolia.

To reduce this deficit in raw materials, smelters stocked up on smelting slag. However, this stock has now been greatly reduced, and mines in Inner Mongolia are still unable to resume or start production within this year. In addition to the downward trend in imports of tin concentrate from Myanmar and decreasing cost margins, procurement of raw materials is forecast to become even more difficult for Chinese smelters. As such, some market participants are being forced to take stocks from the SHFE; stocks declined by 2,600 tonnes between late June and mid August.

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