The latest twice-yearly survey of analysts forecasts by Reuters shows a “consensus” view that LME metals prices will generally stay close to current levels through the second half of this year and into 2012. Around 40 banks and other analysts participated in the survey, of which 22 provided tin price forecasts. The average (mean) forecast for tin in 2011 was $29,128/tonne, rising slightly to $30,321/tonnes in 2012. The annual average predicted for this year is slightly lower than the actual outcome for the first half.
The highest and lowest forecasts for 2011 were $31,900/tonne and $26,000/tonne respectively, while for 2012 the range widened to $37,000/tonne to about $21,800/tonne. Most of the 13 analysts which provided projections of the balance between world production and consumption expected to see supply deficits in both years averaging around 7,000 tonnes in both years.
Reuters also quoted comments on tin from two analysts participating in the poll. Gayle Berry, analyst at Barclays Capital (which made the highest forecast of the 2012 tin price) said: “For tin, we see nothing in the immediate horizon that would change the poor supply picture.” A more cautious Societe Generale commented that “We now expect a more balanced market into 2012, as China production growth continues, while Indonesian mine production picks up. However, continued mine production growth does require reasonably well supported prices.”
