China’s net refined tin imports have fallen sharply this year as a result of over-supply in its domestic market and unattractive price arbitrage. According to official customs figures, China exported 826t refined tin and tin alloy in October, up by 560% y-o-y. This is the highest monthly export in past two years. The total cumulative exports in the first ten months were 2,359t, up by 78%.
Although the differential between China and LME prices was non profitable for export business after allowing for 10% export duty, the domestic market in China is quite flat and facing selling pressure as smelters hope to get more sales revenue before the end of the year. However, we suppose most of the exports were based on the processing of imported raw material and therefore exempt from duty.
China imported 479t refined tin and tin alloy in October, down by 80% y-o-y. The total imports in January-October were 12,677t, down by 52%. The fall is mainly because the price differential is not attractive for the imports, although restrictions on Indonesian exports since end-August have also had a negative impact.
In contrast to the metal trade picture, concentrate imports of China increased greatly in October. China imported 4,295t tin concentrate (gross weight) in October, up by 445% y-o-y and 182% m-o-m. Most of the ore imported was low grade material from Myanmar.
