The first Tin Market Outlook Reception to be held by ITRI China in Beijing on 6 December attracted 91 delegates, including representatives of most leading producers, consumers and trade houses. At the end of meeting ITRI carried out a poll of participants’ views on the market outlook for 2013 both locally and globally. The results showed that most people in the business were expecting only a very gradual improvement in market conditions.
Because local demand has been weak this year, a high level of imports has resulted in a large build-up in inventory. The production of Chinese domestic solder companies has reduced by more than 10% in 2012. China’s tinplate capacity has expanded greatly in recent years, but the capacity utilisation is only around 50% Currently the tin chemicals business is the only major application where there may have been some increase in tin usage in 2012.
While there was general confidence that the Chinese economy would achieve solid growth next year, people surveyed were quite cautious about price prospects, with most expecting only modest gains from current levels. 34 delegates from 24 companies submitted their views. 7 participants were from producers, 5 from traders, 6 from consumers and 16 from funds, brokers, consultancies and research organizations.
The mean forecast for the annual average LME cash settlement tin price in 2013 was $23,400/t; the mean forecast for the annual average China domestic tin price in 2013 was RMB 162,900 yuan/t. Both of these are higher than the average prices in the year to the end of November 2012 – $20,940/t and 157,400yuan/t respectively.
The consensus view on the market outlook was that conditions would gradually strengthen through the year. Most of the delegates expected the highest tin price will be in the 4th quarter of 2013 and the lowest tin price will be in the 1st quarter of 2013. The majority of delegates (22) expected that the global market will be basically balanced in 2013, 9 delegates forecast a supply deficit and 3 a supply surplus.
