Indonesia’s trade ministry released preliminary export data for July yesterday, based on pre-shipment checks made by surveying companies. The tonnage checked was 7,645.2 tonnes, up by 18% compared to July 2013. In a statement e-mailed to news agencies the ministry also made a massive downward revision to its June figure, originally reported at 12,377 tonnes, but now adjusted to 7,016.1 tonnes. No explanation was given for the revision. The ministry has also not yet provided a breakdown of the tonnage into ingots, solder and other products, which it had been doing since last year’s export regulation required that ingots be traded via a local exchange prior to export.
ITRI View: We commented last month that the originally reported June figures were shockingly high, and did not correspond with volumes traded on the ICDX. The revised June figure is therefore slightly more plausible, although ingot exports in May-June are still about 5,000 tonnes greater than ingot traded through the exchange in that period. Even the new lower number still points to a surge in production by private smelters in the second quarter. Eid holidays will likely result in lower sales in August, but we might then see a further increase in September-October in advance of a tightening of restrictions on exports due to take effect on 1 November.
