A poll of Indonesian smelters carried out by Bloomberg gave a median forecast of exports in the fourth quarter of this year at 16,000 tonnes, as a result of lower prices and stricter controls.
“Shipments may slow this quarter as prices have dropped to near the cost of production,” said Jabin Sufianto, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters in Jakarta. “Prices of about $21,000 are unattractive to some smelters.” He also pointed out that the new export regulation due to come into effect on 1 November “…will hold the key to prices. If it’s really tight, prices will probably recover.”
Meanwhile the campaign against unlawful mining in Bangka Belitung has been intensified in the past two months, Maladi, a police spokesman, said in an interview in Pangkalpinang. “The police will continue to crack down on illegal tin mining, such as in protected forests, conservation areas and so forth,” Maladi said. “We’re targeting illegal mines. If it’s legal and they have a permit, then they can go ahead.”
ITRI View: Controls on illegal mining do appear to be getting tighter and the new export regulation will greatly reduce exports of tin in non-ingot form. However we feel that Q4 exports are more likely to be in the 20,000 – 25,000 tonnes range, with a possible surge at the end of the year if prices do recover in the meantime. This would still result in exports over the whole year of only around 80,000 tonnes, which would be the lowest annual total since 2007.
