While continuous large imports and soft demand have resulted in a build-up of tin metal stocks in China, tin may continue to flow into the country due to mine supply problems. Tin production in China is declining because of the pressure of drought conditions, pollution controls by the authorities and falling prices. The latest example of this is in Yunnan province, where more than 100 small mines and processors were closed in Kafang, Gejiu City, in an attempt to reduce pollution in the Hong river in Yunnan and Mekong river in Vietnam.
ITRI estimates that tin-in-concentrate production of the affected mines and processors is 5,000 – 6,000 tonnes per year. It is uncertain when the mines and processors will restart. The local government is considering a plan to move all the processors to a new industrial park so that they can be more closely controlled. The mining and processing operations of Yunnan Tin Company in this area – which produce more than 2,000 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate per year – are not affected by these measures. YTC’s main operations are in Laochang and Xinjian. In January-April mine and refined tin production in Yunnan province fell by 11.8% and 9.2% year-on-year respectively, according to latest official CNIA data. Total mine and refined tin production in China fell by 0.2% and 3.7%, with losses in Yunnan and Guangxi partly offset by increases in Hunan and Jiangxi.
China imported 1,728 tonnes of refined tin in April according to the latest data from China Customs. Although it is the lowest total in the past three months, it was still a relatively high level and increased by 140% y-o-y. Cumulative imports in January – April amounted to 9,633 tonnes, up by 265% compared with the 2,643 tonnes imported in the same period of last year. China imported 3,789 tonnes of tin concentrate (gross weight) in April and 11,449 tonnes in January- April, up by 331% and 15.8% respectively. Most concentrate imports were from Burma and Bolivia. The recent fall in LME prices is believed to have re-stimulated arbitrage trade in the last week and may be a significant factor in the very high level of cancelled warrants for tin held in LME warehouses in Malaysia.
