Reuters released the results of its latest six-monthly poll of analysts’ base metals price forecasts on Friday. Up to 32 analysts contributed forecasts for different LME metals to the survey (21 providing tin price forecasts) and across the board the “consensus” view was that average prices for all six metals in 2012 would be lower than last year, with a pick-up then expected in 2013.
Following an average LME cash settlement price of $26,025/tonne in 2011, tin price forecasts for this year ranged between some $18,200 and $25,800/tonne, averaging just over $22,300, or 14% lower. For 2013, the average was $24,400/tonne, within a wider range of $11,700 – $30,000/tonne.
Commenting on the results, Reuters columnist Andy Home noted that the forecast weakness in tin “is curious because tin is the only market other than copper widely expected to remain in deficit this year. Of 11 analysts only one, INTL FCStone, is forecasting a surplus and that to the tune of a modest 3,000 tonnes. Collective animosity to the market probably reflects the bruising emotional impact of last year’s price collapse from those record highs. Is the negativity overdone, most extremely in tin but across the other metals as well?”
