Latest tin data released by Indonesia’s trade ministry on 10 July, the day after the country’s presidential election shocked many industry participants and observers. The total tonnage of tin checked by surveyors prior to shipment amounted to 12,377 tonnes, one of the highest monthly totals on record, mainly in the form of ingots. However – as in May – the volume of ingots checked for export was much greater than the amount traded on the ICDX. Under Indonesia’s current export regulation, tin ingot cannot be shipped until it has been traded on the Indonesian exchange.
According to Bloomberg the mix of different forms of tin checked in June was 11,252.2t of ingots, 230.6t of solder and 894t of other tin products. The ingot total compares with only 4,660 tonnes traded on ICDX. The cumulative difference between the trade ministry figures and ICDX since the new regulation came into force on 30 August 2013 is now close to 10,000 tonnes.
ITRI View: It is not surprising the tonnages being checked for export have risen sharply in May-June, as a tightening of the regulation was expected to have been announced before the election, with tougher impurity limits for ingots and extra controls on non-ingot products. However we guess that while a lot of tin is nearly ready to go, a substantial portion of it had not been shipped by the end of last month. The two surveying companies checking shipments do so both before and after it is traded through ICDX, covering sourcing and quality before it can be offered on the market, then monitoring stuffing and sealing of containers afterwards. It appears that the statistics released by the ministry must be based on the pre-trading checks, which in turn implies that there has been a build-up in stocks at smelters holding back from selling and hoping for a recovery in prices.
