Preliminary data released by Indonesia’s trade ministry on 8 April showed a surge in exports before a plan to limit sales to 4,500 tonnes per month came into effect.
Exports in March were reported to Reuters at 6,929.70 tonnes, up by 16% compared to February and 19% on March 2014. The data is based on pre-shipment checks made by surveying companies as part of the ministry’s export licensing system. The total included 6,921.52 tonnes of ingots and 8.19 tonnes of solder. Sales of solder and other non-ingot products have slumped since last November, when the latest export regulation made such business very difficult. The preliminary data shows first quarter sales at 19,686 tonnes, 19.6% higher than in January-March 2015, while the cumulative 12 month total amounts to 79,154 tonnes.
ITRI View: From this month PT Timah and the 19 private smelter members of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) have agreed to limit sales to 2,500 tpm and 2,000 tpm respectively, subject to monthly reviews and depending on market conditions. We guess that actual exports in the next few months will average around 5,000 tpm, allowing for sales by other smelters which are not members of AETI. Latest ICDX sales volumes (2,985 tonnes from 1 – 14 April) are running slightly ahead of this rate, but if the latest slump in LME prices continues, this is likely to limit new business over the rest of the month.
