On Thursday Indonesia’s trade ministry announced a preliminary November tin export figure of only 465 tonnes, based on pre-shipment checks made by surveyor companies. In messages to news agencies it also made a downward revision of the previous month’s total from 7,420 tonnes to 6,985 tonnes. The November total is the lowest monthly level since April 2007, just after the current export licencing system was introduced and when very few producers had been approved as exporters.
Indonesian shipments have tailed off sharply at the end of 2014 and could continue to be constrained by a mix of lower prices and tighter regulation. The most important immediate issue is the new export regulation No. 44/2014 which came into force on 1 November and severely restricts sales of non-ingot products, which accounted for a third of all sales in the 10 months to October. There has also been much stricter implementation of the laws by police and customs officials, with inspections of cargoes, documentation and mine sites stepped up considerably recently.
ITRI View: The cumulative January-November volume is only some 65,600 tonnes, down 15.9% on the first 11 months of 2013. The President of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI), Jabin Sufianto, predicted a decline in tin shipments to below 70,000 tonnes in 2015 in a presentation at ITRI China’s recent conference. It looks like the forecast might come true a year early! This would be the lowest annual export total since 2003.
