Trade ministry data released today shows that Indonesian tin supply has revived following several months of low sales as new export regulations took effect from 30 August. Since that date all ingot exports have been made via the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), although sales of tin product such as solder are exempt from the regulation until 2015. Monthly volumes fell to only 786 tonnes in September, rising to 4,070 tonnes in October and further to 5,193 tonnes last month.
Tin exports in November, based on surveyors’ reports before shipment, comprised 3,649 tonnes of ingots and 1,544 tonnes of solder, ministry data showed. That compares with 3,314 tons of ingots and 756 tons of solder in October. “The share of solder in the export volume will continue to increase,” Tjahyono Mukmin, director at smelter CV Serumpun Sebalai, told Bloomberg. Smelters that haven’t joined the ICDX will rely on solder to keep businesses running, he said.
ITRI View: Most of the major Indonesian smelters have now joined ICDX, and rising trading volumes on the exchange reflect that fact. Weekly sales have been in the order of 2,000 – 2,500 tonnes, as producers have caught up on sales after the dislocation caused by the sudden implementation of the regulation from the end of August. Cumulative volume in the eleven months to November is 78,051 tonnes, down by 13% on the same period of 2012. We would guess that December exports will be in the order of 7,000 – 8,000 tonnes, to give an annual total of 85,000 – 86,000 tonnes. Volumes may decline after that as the catch up is completed and production is reduced by monsoon bad weather.
