Indonesia’s trade ministry said that combined shipments of tin ingots and solder increased sharply to 4,070 tonnes in October, up from only 786 tonnes in September. October exports were split 3,314 tonnes tin ingot and 756 tonnes of solder. The corresponding September breakdown was 400 tonnes ingot and 386 tonnes solder. Year-to-date reported exports now amount to 72,858 tonnes, down by 11.2% compared to the first ten months of 2012.

The data, based on pre-shipment checks by surveyors working for the ministry, is in line with the rise in trading activity on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) last month. Tin turnover on ICDX was 3,030 tonnes in October compared to 795 tonnes in September.

The new export regulation which came into effect on 30 August requires all tin ingots exports to be traded through a local exchange, although solders and other tin products are exempt from this requirement until January 2015. While it’s still early, the new policy probably meets expectations and will be kept, Deputy Trade Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi told Bloomberg. “Yes, we are consistent,” Krisnamurthi said, when asked if the policy will be kept. “If tin is mined legally, we will facilitate it. If there are problems in exchange membership, we will help. All in all, over a year, the drop in shipments won’t be as much as everyone feared.”

There is continuing opposition to the regulation from some quarters. Regional politicians and leaders from Bangka Belitung met Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan in Jakarta this week to ask for revisions to the tin export regulations, Reuters reported. Wirjawan, a main backer of the reforms, and the energy and mineral resources minister are due to visit the province on 16 November to meet industry members and listen to their complaints. However Deputy Minister Krisnamurthi told Reuters that “although there are many protests from tin mining and industry players, the government and trade ministry will be consistent with the tin export regulations. We will not accommodate pressures to legalise tin produced from illegal mining.”

ITRI View: Last week six more private smelters became members of the exchange, four of whom had previously backed the establishment of an alternative local tin market. Thirteen private smelters are now ICDX members and together with PT Timah account for over a half of Indonesian tin production. Although sales on the Indonesian exchange have been slow so far in November, we would guess that annual exports this year could reach around 85,000 tonnes.