Indonesian tin exports in December amounted to 6,051 tonnes, some 24% high than in the previous month, according to preliminary figures released by the trade ministry today. Reported figures for 2016 totalled 63,559 tonnes, down by 9.4% compared to the previous year.
The latest figures are based on pre-shipment checks made by surveying companies and include 26 tonnes of tin solder, as well as refined metal ingots. They are consistent with the December trading volume on the ICDX, through which all refined tin export sales must be conducted, of 5,980 tonnes.
ITRI View: The lower shipments in 2016 were largely a result of stricter enforcement of Indonesia’s tin sector by the Central government in the second half of 2015 and early 2016 which saw operations cease at a number of mining areas and smelters. Flooding also disrupted production from Bangka Island earlier in the year. Underlying these factors is the long-term trend of decline in Indonesian production as tin resources have depleted and tin grades have fallen. We expect stricter government enforcement of regulation and long-term grade decline to continue to be a downward pressure on tin production and shipments this year. However, this is likely to be offset somewhat by the higher tin price, which should incentivise mine production. With these factors in mind, we expect officially reported Indonesian refined shipments this year to remain broadly level with 2016, although significant uncertainty remains.
