Preliminary data released by the ministry today puts December at 5,804.95 tonnes, down by 43.7% compared to an unusually high December 2014 figure. The data is based on pre-shipment checks made by surveyor companies as part of the ministry’s export regulation system. The total included 5,794.09 tonnes of tin ingot and 10.86 tonnes of solder.

The 12 month total of preliminary estimates for 2015 amounts to 70,154 tonnes, down by 7.6% from the corresponding 2014 annual total of 75,925 tonnes. However the 2014 total included some 10,400 tonnes of solder and other tin products, whereas tighter brought in from November 2014 reduced this component to only around 80 tonnes in 2015.

The December total compares with a sales volume on the of 4,780 tonnes and presumably therefore includes tin traded through the exchange in late November. There have been no sales on ICDX since 29 December. We expect to see monthly exports running at 5,000 – 5,500 tpm in 2016, depending on the strictness of implementation of regulations and market conditions.