On Wednesday an energy ministry presentation to parliament forecast that tin production would be steady at some 88,000 tonnes this year, while the country’s copper and gold production was expected to rise.
On Thursday the Trade Minister told Bloomberg that he saw refined tin exports averaging around 7,000 tonnes per month, also commenting that “Indonesia has become a price setter for tin” and saw potential for rises in prices to above $23,000/tonne. The country’s total export earnings were forecast to rise by 5% from US$190 billion in 2013 and the rupiah was expected to strengthen in value after parliamentary elections in April.
ITRI View: The forecasts are quite close to our own expectations, although January exports could be lower than the 7,000 tpm average predicted by the minister. Production this month will be seasonally slow due to the monsoon, while the large premium of ICDX over LME prices this month has resulted in a big fall in turnover compared to the record volume reached in December.