According to the latest official customs data, July exports of tin concentrate from Myanmar to China amounted to 20,095 tonnes gross weight. This represents a 29% year-on-year increase but a 19% decrease compared to June.
Cumulative concentrate imports from Myanmar for the first 7 months of the year totalled 155,275 tonnes, with contained tin of some 25,000 tonnes estimated by ITRI. This total is believed by local sources to have been inflated by sales from local government stocks during April and June. The late start of the rainy season, which only began in early July, has also contributed to unexpectedly high volumes seen over the last couple of months.
Local producers reported that mined ore production in Wa County has declined in 2015. However, the considerable expansion of processing capacity has helped maintain high volumes of concentrate production by facilitating treatment of previously stockpiled or discarded low grade ore. The concentrate stock in the capital of Wa, Pangsang, is also still believed to be high. This helps explain why production did not reduce significantly in July and may not do so in August, despite the bad weather locally over the last month. We have revised up our estimate of Myanmar mine production in 2015 to a little over 38,000 tonnes, and a further small increase may be possible next year.
