The latest six-monthly survey of metals analysts published this week by Reuters identifies tin as the LME metal most likely to have a higher annual average price in 2013 and 2014 compared to last year. The “consensus” view is that all six LME metals will show some gains relative to the 2012 averages, ranging from 2% for copper to 13% for tin. Most metals, with the notable exception of copper, are then expected to show further small gains in 2014. However it should be noted that the price rises forecast for tin over the next two years have already happened over the last two months!
The mean (average) of 21 analysts’ forecasts of the average 2013 LME tin price was $23,422/tonne, while the median (middle of the range) forecast was $23,800/tonne. For 2014 the mean and median values from 16 forecasts were $24,421/tonne and $24,956/tonne respectively.
Reuters columnist Andy Home commented on the results of the survey for the different metals: “Tin is the favourite, an obvious choice given the soldering and plating metal’s still-strong bull narrative of stretched supply. Eight analysts offered a supply-demand balance forecast for tin and not one of them is expecting anything other than deficit for either this year or next. The median forecast is for the tin price to average $23,800 per tonne this year and almost $25,000 per tonne in 2014. There are bears out there, such as UBS, which came in with the lowest 2013 price forecast of $18,630 per tonne, but they are very much the exception. Standard Bank is marginally ahead of the bull pack with a call for $25,000 this year.”
