The latest six-monthly survey of analysts’ LME metals price forecasts published by Reuters on 22 July indicated that most are cautious about any significant recovery in prices in the second half of 2013 and into 2014. A number expect a fall in copper prices, and only small gains in aluminium, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Most forecast that five of the six markets – tin being the exception – will have supply surpluses in both years.
The “consensus” view of the 17 analysts providing tin price forecasts in 2013 (with 15 also providing 2014 forecasts) was that the annual average LME tin price would rise from around $22,000/tonne this year to some $23,000/tonne next year. All of the six companies providing forecast global supply/demand balances for tin expected the market to be in deficit in both years, with an average expected supply shortfall of some 5,000 tonnes in 2013 and 2 – 3,000 tonnes in 2014.
Barclays analyst Gayle Berry commented: “Supply will once again drive surpluses across the base metals. We expect a relatively flat price outlook given that, arguably, the market is already expecting these surpluses to continue, and in view of our economists’ forecast of a steadying in Chinese economic growth at lower levels.”
