June export data released in mid-July by Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade show refined tin output fell 44% year-on-year, rising 35% from May. The country—the world’s largest exporter, and second largest producer of refined tin—has exported only 14,752 t refined tin in 2024 H1, less than half of the total in H1 2023.
The country’s tin industry is under heightened scrutiny as an ongoing investigation into alleged historical irregularities in the tin trade is handed over to Indonesia’s prosecution service. Continued licensing delays affecting both tin and nickel, exacerbated by the investigation, mean ITA can only confirm seven producers have received RKAB work plans and export licences.
In April, five tin smelters, which together represent approximately half of the country’s refined tin production capacity, were confiscated by the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) in relation to the corruption investigation.
There were initially hopes of a production restart at these companies as a spokesperson for the AGO confirmed it would allow the seized companies to resume operations, although it is unclear what impact this would have on the issue of export licences.
Following the announcement, at a press conference at the Governor of Bangka Belitung’s office, the Head of the Attorney General’s Asset Recovery Agency confirmed that the AGO “will convey [management] to the Ministry of SOEs [State Owned Enterprises], and they will designate a SOE”.
The acting Governor of Bangka Belitung, Dr Safrizal Zakaria Ali, commented: “We hope that this confiscated asset will continue to run and the management will be left to the experts, so that workers who work in this business sector do not stop working.”
ITA is not aware of any significant developments since the press conference.
The launching this week of Indonesia’s commodity tracking system, SIMBARA, for tin and nickel is hoped to improve compliance and detect incidences of illegal mining, with tracking enabled from mine to smelter and to export. The system will allow authorities to monitor compliance on documentation of RKABs, exports, financials, logistics, and personnel involved, with the aim of improving governance and increasing government revenue.
Our view: Despite global supply disruptions representing an approximate 12% year-on-year decline in the supply of refined tin, the market has remained remarkably resilient. Considerable consumer, producer, and exchange inventories have provided buffer, while demand is recovering more slowly than anticipated on a poor macroeconomic climate.
