The Myanmar army has ordered the United Wa State Army (UWSA) to withdraw all its troops from territory normally under the control of the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA, Mongla Group) before a deadline of 24th October 2016. Tensions arose between the UWSA and NDAA, Myanmar’s two strongest ethnic armed organisations and former allies, in late September when a brigade of UWSA soldiers crossed into territory controlled the NDAA capturing two mountain outposts and a border checkpoint. Further troops were sent against an agreement between the armies and in mid-October the start of a new UWSA heavy artillery training program was announced which was expected to last for three months.
The captured areas are in a vital location for the UWSA placed between the two territories the group occupies, one on the Thai border, and another on the Chinese border. The Myanmar army is also present in this economically strategic ‘Golden Triangle’ and government jets have recently been flying reconnaissance missions over Mongla. Some of the posts are now blocked preventing residents from passing from Mongla to the eastern Shan State administrative capital of Kengtung.
The tension appears to have arisen from the 21st-century Panglong Conference and specifically the extent the ethnic groups should be supporting the new peace process. On the second day of the conference, the Wa delegates pulled out, preferring to keep a distance from the process, while NDAA remains more engaged in discussions. The UWSA also has higher expectations than the NDAA having lobbied the government to upgrade its autonomous zone into an ethnic state.
ITRI View: The Man Maw mining area in Wa County remains an important source of tin globally, producing some 47,000t of tin in ore and concentrate form in 2015, 18% of the global total. A slight increase in the site’s production to 49,000t of tin is anticipated this year. ITRI is monitoring developments in the region very closely as any significant escalation of tensions is likely to have a disruptive impact on production and external investment moving forwards.
