The Yunnan Tin Company (YTC) has forecast diminishing tin production from Myanmar over the next few years from their estimate of 24,000 tonnes of tin mined in the country in 2014.
In 2014, after 6 years as a net importer of refined tin, China became a net exporter of the metal due to the rapid growth of tin-concentrate imports from Myanmar which allowed China’s refined tin production to rise 10% to 175,000 tonnes in 2014 compared to the previous year.
YTC recently visited the Man Maw mining area in Myanmar’s Wa County, which has been the location of rapid growth in the countries mined tin production over the last couple of years. At the ITRI China International Tin Forum in Shanghai, YTC’s General Manager, Zhang Fu, outlined the company’s belief that Myanmar’s 2014 tin production was a peak, and that resource and grade depletion at Man Maw will result in a progressive decline in production in the following years.
Import data presented by ITRI China shows that the gross weight of tin-concentrates imported from Myanmar hit highs of some 28,000 tonnes in November 2014, with typical grades of 10% Sn for 60%-70% of the imported concentrates and 20%-35% Sn for the remainder. From December 2014 to March 2015, imports from the country into China have fallen every month. However, the imports hit record highs again in April of 33,095 tonnes, with the recovery of the tin price in China encouraging sales. The increase was partly from stocks built up over the past few months rather than increased production. It is expected that import tonnages will fall again in the next few months as the rainy season impacts production.
ITRI View: ITRI is forecasting total annual tin production in Myanmar of 35,000 tonnes in 2015, which represents a 16% increase on the 30,000 tonnes of tin that ITRI estimates was mined in the country in 2014. Both these figures include roughly 2,000 tonnes of tin from operations in Myanmar unrelated to the Man Maw mining area. However, we concur with YTC’s view that current levels of tin production from Man Maw are unsustainable and will decrease over the next few years.
