Latest preliminary data for Indonesian exports indicate a very high level of shipments in October, despite reports of falling production there. The tonnage of tin checked prior to shipment by surveying companies working for the trade ministry amounted to 11,048 tonnes last month, more than double that of October 2011 and the fifth highest monthly figure on record since the current export licensing scheme started in February 2007.
The cumulative tonnage in the ten months to October 2012 is 82,181 tonnes according to ITRI’s records, up by 4.5% compared to the same period of 2011. The rolling 12 month total is now 99,486 tonnes. The high level of shipments in the last two months partly reflects a catch up after sales were held back due to low prices up to August, but is still at odds with reports that PT Timah’s production will fall by around 20% this year and the recently announced suspension of operations by PT Koba Tin. The likely explanation is that production by independent smelters has been significantly higher than public statements by their spokesmen have indicated.
