This marks the second visit to Bolivia by ITA staff in 2024 following an earlier visit by ITA’s Sustainability team to learn more about supply from mines operated by cooperatives.

In La Paz, ITA staff met with the Vice Minister of Mining, Allen Marcelo Ballesteros López and representatives from Bolivia’s statistics agency to discuss the country’s strategy for growth in the tin industry and opportunities for collaboration with ITA.

We also met with regulator Senarecom to gain a deeper understanding of their role in managing the commercialisation of tin, and spoke with a mining cooperative about the unique and important role that these organisations play in Bolivia’s tin industry.

ITA visited each of Bolivia’s three tin smelters in Oruro—including EM Vinto, the world’s seventh largest refined tin producer—to hear directly about the challenges and opportunities for growth across the country.

ITA was welcomed at Bolivia’s largest tin mine, COMIBOL Huanuni, and at Catavi-based Cooperativa Multiactiva to see their mining and processing operations.

As the world’s fifth largest producer of refined tin, Bolivia plays a critical role in the international tin industry and holds significant potential for the future as the country looks to increase its production to meet growing demand, driven by energy transition technologies.

We thank International Tin Association Chairman and OMSA General Manager Mariano Peró for hosting our visit to Bolivia. ITA represents 70% of global tin production and remains committed to leading the tin industry towards a sustainable future through engagement across the supply chain and with major stakeholders.

OMSA is a member of the International Tin Association.

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The eighth largest tin producer, EM Vinto has entered force majeure, as the Bolivan smelter struggles with sourcing coal from Peru and debt issues.

Trade across the two countries land border is severely restricted, as continued protests in Peru’s Puno region impact trade through various road blockages. The border town of Desaguadero, for example, has been brought to a standstill. Data from the Peruvian Foreign Trade Society show trade with Bolivia fell by two-thirds in January, compared with the same month the last year. Figures for February are expected to be even worse.

With trade restricted, the Bolivian state-owned smelter is struggling to source enough coal from Peru to power its smelter, triggering the force majeure. Production losses could reach up to 200 tonnes of tin per week. These protests have already had a material impact on tin supply; Minsur’s San Rafael mine is in the Puno region with suspended operations since mid-January.

This adds to mounting problems for Vinto, who are also facing financing issues in sourcing concentrate. It is reported that the country’s Huanuni and Calquiri mines have not supplied concentrate to the smelter for over two months as Vinto struggles to pay roughly US$ 90 million debt that has built up buying concentrates over the last few years. Huanani miners are reported to be protesting in La Paz demanding cancellation of the debt.

Our view: It’s been an unwelcome start to the year for Vinto, who would have hoped to rebound from their poor performance last year, alleviating some financing issues. Problems sourcing coal will persist as long as road blockages in Peru persist.  ITA continues to monitor the unrest in South America closely.

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Yunnan Tin Company maintained its position as the world’s largest producer of refined tin, while other Chinese companies shuffled up the rankings. After a turbulent year in Indonesia, production at PT Timah fell significantly compared with 2021. Overall, global refined tin production is estimated to have reached 380,400 tonnes, up 0.3% on last year’s total of 379,400 tonnes.

ITA surveys global tin smelters to compile the annual list of the world’s largest producers. In 2022, these top 10 companies produced 56% of the world’s tin, down from 59% in 2021. As previously mentioned, the part of the drop in the group’s output can be attributed to the difficult year had by PT Timah. However, a significant decline in output from YTC also contributed.

Chinese smelters maintained overall production during 2022, despite challenges. Around 90% of production was shuttered in Q3 as smelters brought forward maintenance on falling prices and low demand. Meanwhile a wide arbitrage led to surging refined tin imports. Concentrate imports were also up year-on-year. Producers in South America maintained production off a strong baseline in 2021. European secondary production dropped as a result of a challenging Q4.

Our view: Despite a poor macroeconomic environment impacting demand, world tin production has remained steady in 2022. We expect a marginal increase in production in 2023, as positivity from China reopening is weighed down with challenges in Indonesia and South America.

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Yunnan Tin Company maintained its position as the world’s largest producer of refined tin, while others, such as EM Vinto, re-entered to Top 10 list. As was well-publicised at the time, MSC were subject to strict COVID regulations from the Malaysian government which saw its production fall significantly compared to 2020. Overall, global refined tin production is estimated to have reached 378,400 tonnes, up 11% on last year’s total of 339,400 tonnes.

ITA surveys global tin smelters to compile the annual list of the world’s largest producers. In 2021, these top 10 companies produced 59% of the world’s tin, down from 67% in 2020. As previously mentioned, the part of the drop in the group’s output can be attributed to the difficult year had by MSC. However, another significant decline in output from PT Timah – the second consecutive fall – also contributed.

In China, most smelters recovered production during 2021, despite challenges. Although recent imports from Myanmar has been lowered, some smelters have pivoted to importing concentrate from other regions – including central Africa. Producers in South America recovered rapidly from COVID-related issues in 2020, with all the surveyed smelters reporting increased production.

Our view: As expected, world tin production recovered well from COVID restrictions, exceeding 2019 and 2020 levels. We do not expect further COVID-related issues and foresee production to continue rising in 2022, with some 4% growth forecast.

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Empresa Minera Huanuni plans to restart the Lucianita processing plant from 1 May, according to an announcement from COMIBOL.

The Huanuni mine relies on the aging Santa Elena processing plant. This plant sees the bulk of the 1,500 tonnes processed daily, with some 200 tonnes reportedly going through the Machacamarca plant. However, in recent years, EMH has struggled to maintain output. Tin-in-concentrate production has fallen from 9,174 tonnes in 2012 to just 5,469 tonnes in 2021.

To combat the fall in production, a US$50 million contract for a new processing plant was awarded to Vicstar in 2011. The new plant – “Lucianita” – aims to increase processing throughput to 3,000 tonnes per day.

Although the new Lucianita plant was inaugurated in 2015, the plant did not begin operations. The lack of a tailings dam and water recirculation system made it impossible to begin processing material. In 2018, test work began at the facility, but again the plant could not begin operations. Reports of electrical problems, as well as damage to machinery, halted commissioning at the time.

This time, however, the national mining company, COMIBOL, believes that the processing plant will begin full operations. According to the announcement by COMIBOL, Vicstar will be paid another 5 million bolivianos to oversee repair work. The construction company will also have to guarantee the processing plant for one year.

Our view: In its 2016 – 2020 Corporate Strategic Plan, COMIBOL assumed that Huanuni would reach 11,141 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate and 1,780 tonnes of zinc-in-concentrate by 2020. This was likely on the basis of Lucianita coming online in 2017 and ramping up over the next year. We assume that Huanuni will operate as normal in 2021, despite the spread of COVID-19 in the country, and so it is likely to reverse the significant decline in production last year even before including the impact of Lucianita. It will likely take around one year for Lucianita to reach nameplate production.

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In total, ITA estimates that 327,200 tonnes of refined tin were produced in 2020. This was a nearly 8% drop in production compared to 2019 levels, which had already fallen some 5% from 2018.

ITA also surveys global tin smelters to compile the annual list of the world’s largest producers. In 2020, these top 10 companies produced 69% of the world’s tin, down from 76% in 2019.

The drop in output from the group can be primarily attributed to the significant decline in production from PT Timah. The company more than doubled production in 2019 after export regulations forced many of the country’s private smelters to cease operations. According to PT Timah’s annual report, some of these smelters were rented to the company, increasing their capacity significantly. However, many private smelters have resumed production, likely ending this deal with PT Timah.

In China, production began the year slowly as the coronavirus impacted raw materials supply. However, the larger companies in the top 10 were able to ride out the disruptions. As a result of the changes in Indonesia, Yunnan Tin retook the top spot on the list.

South America was significantly impacted by the coronavirus, with smelters in Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia closed for an average of two months in the early part of the year. The lengthy closure of EM Vinto (Bolivia) saw it move out of the top 10 for the for the first time. A full year of production from the new B2 tailings reprocessing plant enabled Minsur to keep production steady year-on-year despite the disruptions.

Our view: It is unlikely that we will see another year quite like 2020. Enforced smelter closures are not common normally, but synchronous stoppages across the world are unheard of.

Most smelters now have extensive safety measures in place to prevent COVID entering the plants, and so we feel it is unlikely that further waves of the virus could prevent production for significant periods. With that in mind, we forecast a rebound in refined tin production in 2021 back to 2019 levels.

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The latest statistical data released by the Bolivian government has indicated the severe impact of the coronavirus on tin mining and smelting in the country during the first quarter of 2020.

Mining in the country is conducted by the two mines owned by the state mining organisation COMIBOL, as well as smaller mines and cooperatives. The state-owned Huanuni and Colquiri mines produced some 3,366 tonnes of tin concentrate during the first quarter. Other operations produced a combined 2,489 tonnes.

Total tin concentrate production (5,855 tonnes) was down some 30% year-on-year (YoY). In late March, it was announced that mining operations in the country would be locked down due to the outbreak of the coronavirus.

In terms of refined tin production, the state smelter EM Vinto produced some 2,890 tonnes in the first quarter. This represented 73% of the total refined tin produced in Bolivia during that period. Smelters were also subject to restrictions beginning at the end of March, reducing output. Despite this, total refined tin production in the country was some 14% higher than in 2019.

However, data for the second quarter indicated a significant decline in smelter output. During the peak of coronavirus restrictions in the country, total refined tin production was 1,321 tonnes. This was a decline of nearly 66% quarter-on-quarter and 69% YoY.

Weak demand and lower production in the first half of 2020 saw exports of refined tin from Bolivia fall some 31.7%. 5,171 tonnes of tin were exported from Bolivia in 2020, compared to 7,574 tonnes exported across the same period in 2019. Of the total exported in 2020, EM Vinto sold 3,759 tonnes: some 73%. The United States was the most significant destination, taking 40% of the metal by value.

Our view: Even without coronavirus restrictions, it is estimated that mined tin production in the country would have been significantly lower than in 2019. Based on 2019 annual production, it is estimated that the mine closures removed around 900 tonnes of tin concentrate from the market. Total production would therefore have been around 6,900 tonnes without the lockdown, some 1,500 tonnes lower than in 2019. We expect official Q2 data to show an even greater decline in mine production due to the continued and longer-lasting lockdown measured imposed.

For refined tin production, however, coronavirus-related closures appear to have held back forecast growth.

In Q1, it is estimated that the smelter closures removed roughly 550 tonnes of refined tin from the market. Had the smelters not been forced to close, total Bolivian production in the quarter could have been some 4,400 tonnes, an increase of around 31% YoY.

In Q2, continued closures prevented production of around 2,600 tonnes of refined tin. Yet even with this potential production, smelter output would have still been some 7% lower YoY.

Overall H1 refined production, however, could have increased by some 9% YoY without lockdown restrictions. This is a significant difference compared to the real 32% YoY decline seen in H1 2020.

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A view of Cerro Posokoni, Huanuni’s mining area.

The Cerro Posokoni area, which was historically exploited by artisanal miners, has been a point of contention between Comibol, and its subsidiary EM Huanuni, and the local people. Comibol have lost up to US$ 420,000 through lost production after protests at the mine earlier this month by local residents seeking jobs. However, “there are no more jobs”, Comibol CEO Zelmar Andia said in a statement, “there isn’t a single worker vacancy at Huanuni.”

Comibol have recently invested into a new processing plant, Lucianita, and tailings dam at Huanuni. These will help to double processing capacity to some 3,000 tonnes/day, according to the company. At Comibol’s other mining unit, Colquiri, a contract has been secured to begin construction of another processing plant. The new plant, with a capacity of around 2,000 tonnes/day, aims to double output. This new processing unit will work alongside the one currently operating; one will work to reprocessing tailings, while the other will process new ore, according to the manager of EM Colquiri, Sabino Arando.

Our view: Production from Comibol’s only smelter, Vinto, saw a second consecutive year of declines in 2018. Refined tin production fell 10% in 2018, from 12,637 tonnes to 11,369 tonnes. While maintenance affected output in 2017, it is thought that long-term issues with the ageing infrastructure at both Colquiri and Huanuni are beginning to impact tin production. Although the company are beginning to tackle these issues, the Lucianita processing plant encountered issues during start-up tests in January, delaying full deployment.

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Junior miners accelerate toward production

Alphamin’s Bisie mine is one of the projects that are closest to production, scheduled for Q3 2019. On 8 April, Alphamin announced that they had raised US$ 12 million in capital through a private share placement. Although Alphamin had assured investors in December that cash reserves were sufficient until production at Bisie, the recent change in mining method has driven up costs. Announced last November, the switch from sublevel caving to cut and fill means that more development must be completed ahead of the demand for ore, hence the increased capital cost.

Despite this issue, Bisie is approaching full production, with the processing plant now fully commissioned. Bisie is expected to produce 9,600 tonnes of tin concentrate per year and remains one of the highest-grade deposits in the world, with an initial life of mine of 12.5 years.

Aus Tin Mining, who recently began mining at its Granville East project, have also seen investment into new mine supply. The company has received $ 450,000, also through a private share placement, with the potential for another $ 750,000 via a share purchase plan. The company announced that this investment would be utilised to move the Taronga project into Stage 1, which consists of a 340,000 tonne trial mine with the Northern Zone Ore Reserves along with a pilot processing plant. In total, the Stage 1 operations are estimated to cost around $ 3 million.

Established mines to get new lease of life

Comibol, the Bolivian state-owned miner, has finally signed a contract to expand the processing plant at its Colquiri mine. A contract was originally announced with Bolivian company Ziegler back in 2016, although there have since been a total of four unsuccessful bidding rounds, as well as the most recent successful round.

The three-year deal was awarded to the Bolivian construction firm Carlos Caballero, with a total investment of US$ 72 million. The new concentrator plant, with a processing capacity of 2,000 tonnes/day, aims double output at Colquiri, where 3,753 tonnes of tin, and 15,233 tonnes of zinc, were produced in 2017 according to Comibol.

Our View:

With growth in global refined tin demand likely to accelerate in the coming years, mine production will have to increase significantly to keep up. Although production world’s largest tin concentrate producers, Indonesia and China, are likely to remain stable in the next year, mining in Myanmar looks set to decline as mining costs increase. New sources will need to come online to make up for the loss in tin concentrate from Myanmar.

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The cooperatives have stressed that they are not in conflict with the EMC, but they have declared a state of emergency in defence of their mining areas. La Razon reported that a recent attack on the air system of the mine, using dynamite and compressed air, caused US$ 300,000 worth of damage. The President of the The National Federation of Mining Cooperatives (Fedocomin), Federico Escobar, has warned that demonstrations and protests are possible should a resolution not be reached, which could include roadblocks during the visit of Pope Francis to the country in July.

Bolivian tin mine production in Q1 totalled 4,654 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate. This represents a rise of 21% compared to Q1 2014 but a 13% decrease compared to the previous quarter. However, tin production from the state-owned operations at Colquiri and Huanuni has fallen 21% from the last quarter to 2,783 tonnes. The current low tin price has affected the Huanuni mine in particular, which reported a US$ 4 million loss in the first quarter of 2015 and has announced a series of cost-cutting measures to regain profitability. It is likely that the ongoing dispute at Colquiri has affected production.

The sustainability of Bolivian production has also been questioned; a preliminary Mining Sector Development Plan, prepared by the Bolivian Ministry of Mines, has highlighted a lack of investment in development of tin reserves by Comibol and mining cooperatives as a medium and long term problem in maintaining levels of tin production domestically.

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