At the start of December, ITA hosted the thirteenth annual Investing in Tin seminar, with over 100 delegates attending in-person and online. The event saw presentations from tin industry experts and future tin producers.
Why invest in tin?
ITA Senior Market Analyst Tom Langston presented on the Investment Case for Tin. Langston highlighted that tin is already an essential metal, with 50% of tin used in solder, and other uses in chemicals, tinplate, lead-acid batteries, and a variety of alloys. Tin’s use in solder exposes it to the rapidly growing EV and solar industries, which we forecast will push tin consumption up from 357,000 tonnes in 2023 to 428,000 tonnes in 2030.
New technological developments including sodium-ion batteries—a safer and more efficient substitute for lithium-ion batteries—pose exciting new opportunities for tin demand growth.
Amid substantial demand growth, the supply picture is more challenging. As 2024 draws to a close, the year has highlighted risks associated with a highly concentrated supply chain: Indonesia, the largest exporter of refined tin, and Myanmar, the largest exporter of tin concentrates, have both seen significant supply disruptions.
The dominance of China and Asia is set to cool, with mine supply forecasted to plateau towards 2040. ITA anticipates major mine supply growth in Australia and Europe, with large-scale tin mining forecasted to return to Europe from 2027. A more diversified mine supply picture by 2040 signals stronger security of supply for Asian smelters.
However, ITA anticipates demand to outstrip supply by 2028, reaching a market deficit of 13,000 tonnes by 2030. The existing pipeline of tin projects is too thin, and investment has been insufficient in recent years, far below reaching the estimated $1.07 billion required to bring the required mine capacity online.
The Tin Code to meet investor expectations
Sustainability in the tin industry is a key theme and remains critical to securing future supply. ITA Sustainability Standards Manager Mayra Diaz del Olmo Oliveira presented on ITA’s ESG standard, the Tin Code, which is being adopted by ITA Members and members of ITA’s Explorers & Developers Group.
The Tin Code is tailored specifically for the tin industry, taking into account factors specific to the metal. The 71 Tin Code standards, grouped under 10 ESG principles, are based on a progressive rating system with an expectation for companies to achieve conformance and increasingly make use of an assurance mechanism for independent verification of performance. Tin Code reports are transparent, independently validated, and publicly available.
Investment opportunities
The event saw presentations from members of ITA’s Explorers & Developers Group, which represent some of the most promising sources of future tin supply.
Joe David, Managing Director of Elementos, presented on the company’s Oropesa project in Spain and Cleveland project in Tasmania. David also highlighted the company’s option agreement to acquire up to 50% of the Robledallano smelter near Oropesa, which would make the company Europe’s only integrated tin mine and smelter.
First Tin CEO Bill Scotting addressed delegates, discussing the company’s progress in developing Taronga in New South Wales and Tellerhauser in the historic Erzegebirge Tin District, Germany. The recent DFS showcased Taronga’s simple processing framework and competitive costs.
Managing Director & CEO of Stellar Resources, Simon Taylor, presented on the Heemskirk tin project and the updated scoping study which showed robust economics using only Indicated resources, but also the strong potential for growth, with the company aiming to be Australia’s next tin producer.
Don Turvey, CEO of Cornish Metals, spoke on the company’s progress in advancing the historic South Crofty tin mine towards production. The mine, which is fully permitted, holds the highest grade non-producing tin resource and Cornish Metals have made significant progress in dewatering and refurbishing the mine, as well as undertaking promising regional exploration.
Sally Norcross-Webb, Founder and CEO of Cornish Tin, presented the investment case for the company, which won the Discovery of the Year Award at the UK Mining Conference in June 2024. Cornish Tin’s drilling results to date show considerable potential for definition of not only a high-grade tin resource but also for lithium production.
The role of government and sovereign wealth funds
Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist Joseph Miller gave an introduction to Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and the investment role they play in the critical minerals space.
Miller explained the enormous potential for investment but commented that “the issue is the small size of the critical metals space when you take out copper and lithium”. In particular, the tin market’s small size relative to other metals and the smaller size of tin equities represents a possible challenge.
Miller noted an increasing awareness among non-Asian countries of the need to strengthen their domestic production capabilities. Miller explained that governments play an important role in leading the way for critical mineral investment as “when you get a government providing some funding to a company, that also then attracts money on the private side”, and highlighted the recent US Department of Defense grant to secondary tin producer Nathan Trotter.
Speaking on the UK specifically, Sally Norcross-Webb echoed Miller’s words saying the industry should perhaps push the government “to allocate some of the National Wealth Fund to a scheme not dissimilar to the Australian Exploration Incentive Scheme” where the Government of Western Australia offers grants to explorers undertaking innovative exploration activities that may be deemed to early-stage for private investors.
“The government backing would crowd in other private funding, and private funders would have the security of knowing there was government backing there as well”.
The existing pipeline of tin new supply projects may be thin, but these projects represent strong investment opportunities in an industry with robust long-term supply and demand dynamics.
Recordings and presentations from Investing in Tin 2024 are available on our website for free at internationaltin.org/invest. We thank everyone who attended in-person and online, our speakers, and the Explorers & Developers Group for sponsoring the event.
